E-Commerce Growth Slows, But Still Out-Paces Retail
via blogs.wsj.com
Shopping continues to shift to the Web, but the years of torrid growth are coming to an end.
In 2009, e-commerce in the U.S. managed to buck the recession that dragged down the rest of retail, growing 11% to reach $155.2 billion, according to Forrester Research. The research firm is predicting in a report out Monday that e-commerce in America will grow another 11% this year.
Just a few years ago, online shopping was growing at more than 20% per year. But today, that growth is stabilizing, as shopping habits have shifted to make buying online a more regular occurrence for many types of products. Already, 52% of all computer hardware, software and peripherals are bought online, says Forrester – and growth in online sales of those products is likely to slow considerably in the coming years.
“There are still high levels of growth. But we are on a much bigger base now,” says Sucharita Mulpuru, Forrester’s e-commerce analyst. Compare 11% online growth to the 2.5% predicted by the National Retail Federation for U.S. retail overall in 2010.
In 2010, e-commerce will likely account for 7% of all U.S. shopping, excluding auto, travel, and prescription drugs. That could go as high as 20% someday, says Mulpuru, as a generation that has grown up with e-commerce gains more spending power. In the immediate term, online shopping is going to be driven by purchases of electronics and apparel and footwear, and relatively less mature categories such as furniture, beauty products and groceries.
And a new area of focus for retailers isn’t online buying at all. Rather, it us using the Internet and mobile technology to influence sales that happen in stores. Already Forrester’s study found that 42% of all retail purchases in 2009 – worth some $917 billion – were influenced by the Web in some way. By 2014 that figure is likely to jump to 53%.
In the future, the lines between online and offline commerce are going to get even more blurry. “If somebody buys from a mobile device in your store, is that a Web sale or a store sale?” asks Mulpuru. Retailers “need to think of some new ways that they can take into account the Web’s influence,” she says.
SOURCE: blogs.wsj.com
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